A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
